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Old 10-21-2003, 12:09 PM   #1
Nindalf
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September NPD sales. *BIG SHOCKER!*

I lied. Same nonsense as every month.

September NPD Hardware Sales

PS2: 334,000 [+15% over August sales]
Xbox: 172,000 [+18%]
GCN: 165,000 [+64%]
GBA: 410,000 [+11%]

Cumulative Installed Base

PS2: 19,139,000
Xbox: 6,002,000
GCN: 4,695,000
GBA: 15,909,000

Tie Ratios

PS2: 7.19
Xbox: 5.91
GCN: 5.79
GBA: 3.18
Sept Videogame Sales Results

While US videogame software unit sales (excluding PC) for the month of September were up 3% year over year, industry revenue was down 10% due to a lack of new titles compared to the year ago period. 128-bit software dollars declined 7% y/y, and GBA software dollars were up 37% y/y. 128-bit hardware sales were down 20% y/y due to the continued tough comparison created by the price cuts in May of ?02. However, on a sequential basis sales were up 25%, bringing the install base of new consoles to nearly 30 million in the U.S. PS2 sales declined 34% y/y but were up 15% sequentially. Xbox unit sales decreased 1% y/y, but increased 18% m/m. GCN unit sales decreased 2% y/y, but were up 64% m/m. GBA sales grew 46% y/y and 11% m/m, bringing the install base to nearly 16M in the U.S.

Electronic Arts? (ERTS, $103.80, Outperform [V], TP $120, OW) U.S. videogame sales for the month of September were up 38% versus last year due to the strength of Tiger Woods 2004, NCAA Football 2004 and Madden Football 2004. According to NPD Funworld, Madden has sold 2.5M copies across the PS2, Xbox, GCN, and GBA through September. We continue to expect a better than consensus result when the company reports earnings after the close on Wednesday, October 22nd. Management will host a conference call at 5pm ET. The dial in number is (719) 457-2733, with access code 220497.

THQ?s (THQI, $18.08, Outperform [V], TP $22, OW) U.S. sales increased 68% year over year in September due to a strong performance from the company?s WWE and GBA products. The company?s Finding Nemo has sold approximately 250,000 units across consoles and GBA in the quarter. The company released a solid earnings result for the September quarter last night, reflecting the strength in company sales.

Activision?s (ATVI, $13.70, Outperform [V], TP $14, OW) U.S. sales declined 43% year over year for the quarter, with the weakness attributable to the difficult comparison created by the lack of new releases. We expect Activision to reverse the y/y decline in sales that we have seen since April in the month of October with next Monday?s release of Tony Hawk Underground.

For Take-Two (TTWO, $39.23, Outperform [V], TP $50, OW) sales in September were down 4% y/y and flat month over month. Grand Theft Auto: Vice City and GTA3 continue to drive the company?s sales, selling over 500,000 units combined. Given the strong reviews for the recently released Max Payne 2, we expect that October?s sales will show solid positive momentum. Midway?s (MWY, $2.82, Underperform [V], TP $1.5, OW) U.S. sales in the quarter were down 61% year over year.

1 PS2 MADDEN NFL 2004 469,977
2 PS2 TIGER WOODS PGA 2004 178,547
3 PS2 SOUL CALIBUR II 164,325
4 GBA FINAL FANTASY TACTICS 203,088
5 GCN SOUL CALIBUR II 138,902
6 XBX SOUL CALIBUR II 111,061
7 XBX ESPN NFL FOOTBALL 108,512
8 XBX MADDEN NFL 2004 105,499
9 XBX WWE RAW 2: RUTHLESS 97,045
10 PS2 NASCAR THUNDER 2004 87,316
11 PS2 ESPN NFL FOOTBALL 86,078
12 PS2 NCAA FOOTBALL 2004 84,922
13 GCN WWE WRESTLEMANIA XIX 77,391
14 PS2 GRAND THEFT AUTO:VICE 114,894
15 XBX TIGER WOODS PGA 2004 66,124
16 GBA POKEMON PINBALL: R&S 97,984
17 PS2 NHL 2004 56,873
18 GCN F-ZERO GX 50,595
19 PS2 SIMPSONS: HIT & RUN 48,451
20 XBX SW: KNIGHTS REPUBLIC 47,761
21 PS2 DISGAEA:HOUR DARKNESS 43,013
22 XBX HALO 45,845
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