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Kid0_oIcarus
08-07-2002, 09:02 AM
From IGN Cube

GameCube Beating Xbox
But not for long, say analysts.

August 06, 2002 - According to a Reuters report released today, Nintendo's next-generation GameCube console has amassed a considerable hardware sales lead over Microsoft's Xbox platform since the two systems debuted worldwide. But this could be a short-lived lead if analysts are to be believed.
GameCube has sold through 4.8 million pieces of hardware around the globe compared to 3.8 million Xbox units, cited a study conducted by the Ziff Davis Media Game Group, which polled some 2,000 videogame players.

Interestingly, though, the study also showed that 15 percent of those surveyed wanted to buy an Xbox compared to just nine percent GameCube. Based on those results, the Media Group projected that Xbox will see a total installed base rise to 13.7 million homes globally in 2003 versus 11.2 GameCube owners in the same year.

More as it becomes available.



Very interesting.

What do you guys think?

Seska
08-07-2002, 09:39 AM
I personally would take whatever analysts have to say with a grain of salt. And since this was posted on IGN, I'd actually take it with a large FISTful. :p I remeber Analysts predicting huge Xbox sales toward beginning of the year, but that never went through either.

The Gamecube will most likely stay ahead, if it keeps up with a steady flow of good titles. Otherwise the analysts may be proven correct.

Nindalf
08-07-2002, 09:49 AM
I must agree with Seska.If Ninendo releases more great titles like SMS,Zelda,Starfox AdventuresMetroid Prime etc. it will stay ahead
but even if it dont release that kind of games XBox dont have many great tittles

mxgame
08-07-2002, 09:59 AM
I don't see how they can base the the installed base on a poll of 2000 people. The whole thing sounds very unscientific and very imprecise.

Kid0_oIcarus
08-07-2002, 12:17 PM
I though that too, but all these surveys and polls and such are hardly ever 100% accurate. This is just a sampling of gamers and a interpretation of the numbers- as every poll and survey is. The key is always to try and follow the money trail- who's doing the interpreting.. what interests can they hold in all of this?

Anyhow, Gamers.com has a similar article up and they cite different sources..

From Gamers.com
PS2 Dominates Xbox and GameCube in National Survey
By: Ray Barnholt August 6, 2002 2:47 PM PDT

According to the Digital Gaming in America Survey conducted by research company the Strategy Group, 29 percent of video game players own a PlayStation 2, compared to 10 percent who own a Nintendo GameCube and 8 percent who own an Xbox. To compliment those numbers, within two months gamers plan on buying 1.5 games for their PS2, 1.3 for their GameCube and 1.1 for their Xbox.
Other results in the survey revealed that 17 percent of gamers plan on buying a PS2, 15 percent would buy an Xbox and 9 percent plan on nabbing a GameCube. As for online gaming, 50 percent of Xbox owners already have a broadband connection, ready and willing for the debut of Xbox Live. PS2 and GameCube owners came in at 41 and 31 percent, respectively. As for how pleased those owners were with their systems, it was practically a level playing field. The PS2 got an 88 percent rating, Gamecube with 87 and Xbox with 81, all falling under the survey's category of "very satisfactory."

Video games in general did very well in the survey. Economic data showed that in 2001 the number of households with video game consoles jumped from 39.8 million to 49.2 million. Consoles were also shown to be edging out the PC, with the number of PC gamers dropping from 56.7 million to 55 million. The difference now between households with a PC or a console is 5.8 million.

For 2003, the survey predicts another leading position from Sony, with 24.1 million users. Microsoft comes second with 13.7 million and Nintendo with 11.2 million.

The numbers are similar, though - I guess that still applies.

I also think if the gamecube is ahead of the xbox- it will stay ahead, because of the anticipated titles on the system. We will see, though.. we will see.

DBJAY
08-07-2002, 12:27 PM
That is what analysts do. They cannot interview every single potential Gamecube, Xbox customer, or PS2 customer, so they do projections. They don't just randomly throw darts and take wild guesses based on nothing. There is a science/methodology behind the profession.

Time will tell if the projections are accurate.

If Nintendo really wants to make a run for second place, they could start by changing the way they deal with the media. Look at Sony. They used media hype to effectively build great anticipation for the hardware capabilities of the PS2 months before it came out. Their trojan horse, MGS2:SOL, won game of E3 based on video footage. They released demos during the PS2 press conference that still have yet to be achieved on the machine. Thanks to the short term memory of game consumers, no one cared that the PS2 has yet to deliver the level of quality promised and it became the number one console. Even now, they are telling people that their online plans include music downloads, movie downloads (on 56k no less!) in the future which is what they stated two years ago.

Despite their complete lack of fulfilling their hype, Sony manipulated the media so well that the average consumer bought into every shred of it. Even now, with the weakest hardware of the three (which is ironic because the entire pre-hype of the PS2 was focused how much more powerful the hardware was than the DC) they have successfully drawn attention away from their hardware weaknesses towards their third party software strength.

In this regard, Nintendo has failed. They really haven't exploited the hardware edge over the PS2. They haven't been able to focus on the quality third party software that separates them from the competition. They are too secretive about their first party games. All of this creates consumer perception and clearly the consumer is choosing the PS2 over the Cube in large numbers.

However, Xbox is going down the same road as the PS2. First, they touted the hardware abilities over the software and did the demos. Then, they showed games that are a ways off, but still incredibly promising (Project Ego/Fable, Psychonaughts). They have drawn attention the quality of the third party ports, which typically contain exclusive features. They have complimented their third party strength with an decent first party Microsoft Game Studios division and put out a lot of info about those games. By following Sony's strategy, I can see why analysts predict Xbox outselling Gamecube on a worldwide scale.

Nintendo quite simply needs to keep the public buzzing about their software. If there is a Mario sequel due out in 2003, release some screenshots, put up a web site with teaser images. The public is always looking for the next big thing, and Nintendo needs to convince the consumer that they have it.

Black Ace
08-07-2002, 01:25 PM
Nintendo quite simply needs to keep the public buzzing about their software. If there is a Mario sequel due out in 2003, release some screenshots, put up a web site with teaser images. The public is always looking for the next big thing, and Nintendo needs to convince the consumer that they have it.


Nintendo doesn't like revealing their software too early. They don't even want to released demos because they believe people think the final version will be just the same.

However, Nintendo GBA will continues to sell at the same pace as the PS2 or nearly that, so they can always profit and survive from there.

FumieHosokawa
08-07-2002, 01:29 PM
Originally posted by DBJAY
That is what analysts do. They cannot interview every single potential Gamecube, Xbox customer, or PS2 customer, so they do projections [....] By following Sony's strategy, I can see why analysts predict Xbox outselling Gamecube on a worldwide scale.

The only person here who's said anything remotely un-fanboyish is mxgame: like a poll of 2,000 videogame players is somehow gonna represent 25 million.

DBJAY
08-07-2002, 04:13 PM
Please, your attempt at guessing the number of potential customers for the consoles is only embarrassing yourself. 25 million? Where did you get that number from?

Analysts are professionals, who are paid to analyze market conditions and make projections. Unless you think that analysts are also "fanboys." In which case, it is the true mark of a fanboy to disagree with professionals simply because you don't like outcome of the projection.

Nintendo, if they are not pleased with the pojection, still has time to address the problems and adjust their long term strategy. It is fortunate that no one competes with them in the portable game market.

aneep
08-07-2002, 04:40 PM
nice post DBJAY

kid icarus, the source for both article are the same, its also on several other news sites

i still don't see why u are all so concerned anyway, heh, its not like u are a shareholder of any of these companies (or am i wrong?)

-aneep-

mxgame
08-07-2002, 04:49 PM
Actually, I was referring to the fact that they seem to be basing the current installed base off the survey. The sentence is worded in such a way to mean they are accounting for the present user base off of a poll. There are more accurate means of gauging the user base. But aneep is right I don't have any stock in any of the companies it just seems like an odd way to determine the user base.

FumieHosokawa
08-08-2002, 02:07 AM
Originally posted by DBJAY
Please, your attempt at guessing the number of potential customers for the consoles is only embarrassing yourself. 25 million? Where did you get that number from?

Read your own post. Your "analysts" (whose only credentials, it seems, are to take percentages from a pool of 2000 and apply them to a potential user base of ten thousand that) "project" sales of 13.7 million Xboxes and 11.2 million Gamecubes. Add that up. Oh, it doesn't EQUAL 25 million, my bad. I'm only embarassing myself.

By the way, why bring up Nintendo's performance against its competition--specifically Microsoft, whom you have vociferously stood by in the past--in the Gamecube forum, if not to troll for this sort of response?

Seska
08-08-2002, 04:20 AM
As I work for a government office in Spain, I get to translate a bunch of reports on tourism analysis and the like. The leading tourism analysis for the ENTIRE POPULATION OF GERMANY is based on a 7000-8000 people poll. Germany's population lies somewhere around the 82 million people. So In a way I will have to agree with DBJAY on this one, 2000 seems a fair figure to base an analysis on, though with videogames it is much harder to get representative figures as the area of distribution (global, as opposed to regional in Tourism analyis) is far, FAR larger, so there is a greater margin of error.

As I said before.. such analysis are not the final word on the matter, they are a guide that aid you to develop strategies and plans, they help you see a trend that could form. In the end, anything can happen, and an analyst is nothing more than a consultant.

xXx Beaver xXx
08-08-2002, 06:23 AM
Nintendo will live through anything, even if the lose the console war (unlikely), profits will still be up!






- Triple X Beaver :spin smil

Kid0_oIcarus
08-08-2002, 10:31 AM
So the sources are the same, then? Whatever.

Oh aneep, you don't have to own stock in a company to have a friendly discussion on how a piece of equipment is doing on a market. Sure, it won't really make any difference but who cares anyway? I posted this to see what people thought of the analysts' prediction that the Xbox might outsell the Gamecube later on.. will that make you buy another console now? Do you think their upcoming games (any party) might change any of this? Discuss merrily amongst yourselves, while I go make some punch.

aneep
08-08-2002, 06:33 PM
ok then, for friendly discussion

my opinion

all 3 will likely make a profit this gen, with Nintendo in the lead, Sony and then MS

marketshare does contribute to profit, but sales of 1st party games contribute more, and Nintendo games are sure to sell (wether they are crappy or kiddy or whatever is irrelevent)

PS2 had a two year lead with no competition, and i don't think either Nintendo or MS can or even think that they can catch up

what they can do, is hype and beef up the quality of their own games so that even will a smaller userbase (compared to Sony), they can profit more

so far, looks like MS and Nintendo is doing pretty well in that regard, their attach rates (sw to hw) is quite high and if i remember correctly, are even higher than Sony managed in the same time frame

that said, Nintendo is in even better condition, as they are not really competing with Sony and MS (u have to be at their shareholder meeting to understand, or at least hear from the shareholders themselves)

if i elaborate on that, ppl will accuse me of fanboy-ism though ;)

-aneep-

SupaSonic22
08-09-2002, 12:22 PM
by the end of the year GC is gonna be so damn far ahead of xbox it wont even be funny.....:) all those beautiful titles coming up....definitely gonna KILL xbox

aneep
08-09-2002, 11:55 PM
Originally posted by SupaSonic22
by the end of the year GC is gonna be so damn far ahead of xbox it wont even be funny.....:) all those beautiful titles coming up....definitely gonna KILL xbox

haha

i just love 'glimpse of the future' like this ;)

-aneep-