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Kid0_oIcarus
09-23-2002, 10:20 AM
Taken from CNN/Technology
Xbox facing crucial Xmas sales test
Pressure on for Microsoft to deliver the video game goods
Monday, September 23, 2002 Posted: 9:13 AM EDT (1313 GMT)

LONDON, England (Reuters) -- It's been just six months since Microsoft Corp. launched its video game console Xbox in Europe and there is already mounting pressure on the U.S. software giant to score a big Christmas.

The Xbox needs to end its first year with a flourish. If it doesn't, industry observers say, its prospects for turning a profit will be pushed back a few years, triggering some deep soul-searching at Microsoft headquarters in Redmond, Washington.

"If Microsoft has a disastrous Christmas, particularly in important markets like the UK and the U.S., then somebody in Redmond is bound to say, 'Wait a minute guys. This doesn't look good,'" said Toby Scott, editor of video game trade publication Games Analyst.

[...]


Read the rest here (http://www.cnn.com/2002/TECH/fun.games/09/23/xbox.test.reut/index.html)!

Good read, what do you guys think about it? Does the Xbox need a big Christmas? Is it going to get it? Discuss!

Nindalf
09-23-2002, 10:48 AM
Heres my opinion(like someone cares):
Yes i think XB needs a big chrismas and so does PS2 and GC(well PS2 dosent need so big coz it has already sold over40million copies)

But i think XBOX will get free arse kicking this christmas from GC and PS2. Its chances are minium aggains GC and PS2!

But that just my opinion and im no expert or anything!

Kid0_oIcarus
09-23-2002, 10:59 AM
I knew I could count on your insight NiN!

Btw, did you read the whole article? I only ask because I didn't post it all, and wanted to know how many people will actually go and finish reading the article... :D

crazytaxinext
09-23-2002, 11:08 AM
I think Xmas will be critical to Xbox especially in Europe were its success or failure hangs in the balance. But I also believe it will have 7 shades of you know what kicked out of it. This years line-up of titles is more competitive than it has been for years and in the last few weeks Xbox has seen nearly all its major titles slip to next year and from the handful that are left either most will slip as thats how Europe always is with waiting times:

For example, right now DOA:XBV is listed for Japanese release on December 5th. So, what are the chances that it will meet its Euro release of December 6th especially when no-ones played it yet?

Xbox has great games coming but sadly they aren't coming out when it matters most.

Nindalf
09-23-2002, 11:09 AM
I read the whole article and there was one thing that seemed interresting:It said this years console sales was about 14.2 Million and XBOX sales of them was 1.5million so do anyone know how mutch PS2 and GC has that?

And it also said MS looses 76-15 by every sold Xbox(and 249euros in europe!:D )

BTW i didint remember all those numbers...got to check the article again!:P

Black Ace
09-23-2002, 11:18 AM
Microsoft wont make any profits off from the Xbox until atleast the year 2004/2005 when Microsoft is expected to break even. They need another Halo to help them get there. Now that they got Rare, PD0 might be the Xbox next system seller. Rare also makes ton of other games other than FPS, which something Microsoft needs for it first party software line up.

Kid0_oIcarus
09-23-2002, 11:19 AM
Yeah NiN, it was $76-150 estimated dollars lost per console sold in the US at the selling price of $199 and Europe's selling price of 249 euros...

From the Billster
They need another Halo to help them get there. Now that they got Rare, PD0 might be the Xbox next system seller. Rare also makes ton of other games other than FPS, which something Microsoft needs for it first party software line up

Yeah, they talked about that in the article- what do you think of the last line said in the article about this specifically, though.. do you think it holds some truth? Personally, I agree with it- it can't really be a viable business mold if they plan on doing this sort of thing... but perhaps Rare will be enough for them?

DBJAY
09-23-2002, 11:53 AM
This article could almost be re-printed from last year. Of course, MS needs a big Christmas season, just like last year. This will never change, they will need another one again next year too. The article is witless speculation on events that might happen.


"MS might have a disastrous Christmas." Uh, why? Considering that the line-up of titles is better than last year, the hardware costs less, everything about the software have improved, and the Xbox Live initiative has just started. Given these factors, the author thinks that a disastrous Chrtistmas is a possibility. Odd. I would think the odds were even higher against success last year.

The author states opinion as fact, but uses no criteria to explain his position.

The aquisition of Rare will certainly help them, but that effect won't really be seen until 2003 when Rare reveals their Xbox projects.

I think people tend to forget that Xbox is on it's one year anniversary in the US, and this is it's first Christmas in Europe. It has been a relatively good year one of software releases, and year two is starting out pretty good.

crazytaxinext
09-23-2002, 12:01 PM
:D

Good year for you. In Europe MS is flaing to release anything off the back of the last 6 months when its failed to release anything.

Nindalf
09-23-2002, 12:09 PM
crazytaxinext is right!
in europe and Japan Xbox isint doing so well!
But maybe this christmas changes it who knows...
but my moneys are on that GC and PS2 will beat XB this year!

aneep
09-23-2002, 03:29 PM
ppor article IMO, rehashes the same thing as every other 'Xbox is teh d00med!' articles that has been posted since before xbox was launched

interestingly enough, the most intertaining 'xbox is teh d00med!' article i have read is over at MSNBC :D

CNET ones are not bad too, at least they ask a whole lot of ppl in the industry

not just one like this one here

-aneep-

Havoc2049
09-23-2002, 07:19 PM
Xbox just might be the best selling console in America this holiday season. Some market research company surveyed something like 5,000 people who were going to buy a console this holiday season. Xbox: 37% PS2: 35% and GG:28%. It won't be Nintendo, they have fired most of their big guns already, not to many games left for a strong holiday season in America.

Nindalf
09-24-2002, 04:08 AM
Hey AtaiX...it was 5000people!what is matter...

It stupid to go and ask few thousand people when there is milllions of people in america!
The results can be totally different!Nintendo could sell most and Xbox less...
Only if they would have ask about250k people or something maybe then i would have believed on that but now that means nothing to me

Kid0_oIcarus
09-24-2002, 01:04 PM
No need to get riled up- and yes, AtariX I remember that article well... in fact I remember it having taken place quite a while back, actually before the exact details of Nintendo's release list were known. Oh, sure you knew Mario was coming, and so was Link- but I say if that survey was conducted again the results would be quite a bit different.

Since Nintendo is coming on so strong this holiday season and early next year- that just leaves one question out... what do they have in store next?

;>

DBJAY
09-24-2002, 01:56 PM
Nintendo has very little in store for what's next.

StarFox is the next "big" exclusive game to hit, and then Metroid.

Zelda's release date changes like the wind, and that is at least several months off. 1080 WS and Wario World (which was delayed from it's original date), might come in early 2003. Every other major game shown or anticipated, have no release months/quarters.

When is Mario Kart coming? Mario Golf? Mario Tennis? Will Mario Party 4 hit it's date? When will Sega's F-Zero hit? When will Namco's StarFox game hit? The rumored Zelda remakes..when?

Quite a bit of Nintendo's GC unveiling two years ago included teasers of games yet to be released, like White Storm, Zelda (which completely changed looks into cel-shading), or things like Meow's Party (a tech demo assumed to be a game, but alas, Pokemon is still hand held only 2 years later).

The Nintendo infamous pr blackout makes it next to impossible to be excited about "what's next" projects for the GC.

Havoc2049
09-24-2002, 02:20 PM
If you break it down by genre, GC has the weakest and thinest line-up this Holiday season in the US. The GC does seem to be coming on strong in Japan though, something that didn't happen with the N64.

Kid0_oIcarus
09-24-2002, 02:29 PM
I'm glad you're always here to rain on my parade, DJBAY.

Now then, sure Nintendo's marketing gurus are infamous for their enthusiasm when working with the media- but this goes beyond simple smoke and mirrors.. here we're talking about business sense.

Knowing Nintendo's strong business past- do you really think the company has nothing lined up?

Black Ace
09-24-2002, 02:33 PM
Originally posted by AtariX
If you break it down by genre, GC has the weakest and thinest line-up this Holiday season in the US. The GC does seem to be coming on strong in Japan though, something that didn't happen with the N64.

I doubt it if Xbox popularity in Japan can even come close to N64. Can you justify Xbox being outsold by PSone, wonder swan colors? Thats unaceppatable.

Black Ace
09-24-2002, 02:41 PM
Originally posted by AtariX
Xbox just might be the best selling console in America this holiday season. Some market research company surveyed something like 5,000 people who were going to buy a console this holiday season. Xbox: 37% PS2: 35% and GG:28%. It won't be Nintendo, they have fired most of their big guns already, not to many games left for a strong holiday season in America.

Basing something from a mere 5,000 people's opinion is a gimmick. Xbox outselling PS2 this Holiday? Only when pigs fly. Let's leave PS2 out of the debate, it had already won this generation with 40 million units sold and is still outselling all other's. Winning the Holiday is isn't big, winning the whole year is something to take to the bank.

Kid0_oIcarus
09-24-2002, 02:45 PM
Originally posted by AtariX
If you break it down by genre, GC has the weakest and thinest line-up this Holiday season in the US. The GC does seem to be coming on strong in Japan though, something that didn't happen with the N64.

True- alas, the GC lineup won't be pleasing some looking for specific genres this holiday.But let's look at what they do have: Crowd pleasers, and fan favorites.. sure hits? I don't know how else to describe them. Rated E for Everyone, perhaps? :D

Havoc2049
09-24-2002, 02:48 PM
Most of those guru's from Nintendo's past have either retired or have moved on and now work for Sony and Microsoft. Microsoft seems to really have raped Nintendo of America of talent lately.
Offer NOA employees more money and they don't even have to move, NOA and Microsoft are practically right next to each other up there in Washington State. Then Microsoft bought Rare. It all smells live an evil Micro$oft plan to kill off the smallest guy.:D
I'm being somewhat sarcastic, but it wouldn't be a first for Microsoft.

Black Ace
09-24-2002, 02:52 PM
Originally posted by DBJAY
Nintendo has very little in store for what's next.

StarFox is the next "big" exclusive game to hit, and then Metroid.

Zelda's release date changes like the wind, and that is at least several months off. 1080 WS and Wario World (which was delayed from it's original date), might come in early 2003. Every other major game shown or anticipated, have no release months/quarters.

When is Mario Kart coming? Mario Golf? Mario Tennis? Will Mario Party 4 hit it's date? When will Sega's F-Zero hit? When will Namco's StarFox game hit? The rumored Zelda remakes..when?

Quite a bit of Nintendo's GC unveiling two years ago included teasers of games yet to be released, like White Storm, Zelda (which completely changed looks into cel-shading), or things like Meow's Party (a tech demo assumed to be a game, but alas, Pokemon is still hand held only 2 years later).

The Nintendo infamous pr blackout makes it next to impossible to be excited about "what's next" projects for the GC.

You make it sounds as the only stuff GameCube owner buying is from Nintendo.

In fact, there are lot of major exclusive third party games coming out. Resident Evil Zero lead the pack. Square will release Final Fantasy in early 2003. Capcom has 2 more exclusive games. FF and RE are easily the two of the biggest name in every game market, US, Japan and Europe.

DBJAY
09-24-2002, 04:55 PM
I don't think there is nothing in the pipeline, but I can't assume what those games will be. I can't see the future. Predicting what Nintendo has in store for gamers, and therefore how excited people will be buy those games, is impossible.

Capcom's RE 0 will be popular, but again, it has been a game a long time coming (dating back to the N64!...as does Star Fox Adventures when it was known as Dinosaur Planet). Final Fantasy for GC is even more of a mystery, with next to no info on when it will be released. At best, maybe fall 2003 if it makes it to Japan by the spring. If it slips till fall 2003 in Japan, US/Euro might see it in early 2004.

I don't see how Nintendo can generate any excitement about their next big thing post-Zelda's release in late spring, without putting concrete information out there.

To some degree, this does apply to the Xbox as well. However, there have been more announcements coming from the Xbox camp about games due in late 2003 - like Halo 2, Fable/Project Ego, Gotham 2, Doom 3, etc. - that at least you know the titles and years of intended release. All Nintendo has to do is say, 100 Marios for late 03, or Pokemon for GC in late 03, etc. to generate buzz about future products.

Black Ace
09-24-2002, 05:05 PM
Basicly, what exactly is your point DBJAY? I failed to realize why you make such a big deal out of waiting for a game release. Thats the fun of it, its called "hype".

And I must ask you, how long was Halo in development before it was release?

aneep
09-24-2002, 05:13 PM
Xbox already lead the GC in sales by 500k in US (new NPD numbers) and the GC probaly leads the Xbox in almost as much in Europe

the GC is a lot stronger in Japan, which is not new, hell IMO Xbox will never ever even come close to GC there, not without any big japanese franchises to back them up

but as i see it, US is still be biggest market for VG, and Europe have the potential to be bigger than Japan in the next two years, so Xbox might not be a lost cause for MS after all

as a new article says, while Sony is looking like a clear 'victor', there's no one who looks like they would 'lose'

the worldwide market is big enough for 3 IMO

-aneep-

DBJAY
09-24-2002, 05:29 PM
Point is, there is zero hype on Nintendo's post Zelda schedule, because there is little info on it.

The original question asked what is next for Nintendo. Problem is that with no info to even create buzz, I find it impossible to be excited about nothing.

Halo was at least 3 years starting life on pc, but it wasn't promoted as an "exclusive" Xbox title until very late in it's development.

Look at how Nintendo handled E3 2002. What did they show that had the impact of E3 2001? Very little. They spent the show focusing on games of this year....Mario, Metroid, Starfox, (at the time Zelda was thought to be this year) which are the same games that begin their hype at E3 2001. What they should have done was to debut games at E3 2002, that will show up at E3 2003 in nearly finished form. Can you honestly say there was one game at E3 2002 for Nintendo that qualifies as an event title that was never shown before?

I'm sure there will be event games coming to the GC for fall 2003 (and beyond), but I honestly have no clue what they are or when they will be released.

Black Ace
09-24-2002, 05:46 PM
Point is, there is zero hype on Nintendo's post Zelda schedule, because there is little info on it.

Whats it to you? You saying you want Zelda to be hyped?

Can you honestly say there was one game at E3 2002 for Nintendo that qualifies as an event title that was never shown before?

So you saying to want to see new games... but if you're a Nintendo fan, you know the procedure. Nintendo doesn't usally gives info into their games and I can live with that, for years now.

Ok do you even have a GameCube?

Kid0_oIcarus
09-25-2002, 11:36 AM
From DJBay
Point is, there is zero hype on Nintendo's post Zelda schedule, because there is little info on it.

To a certain extent this comment isn't entirely off the mark, due to Nintendo's PR strategies- no one is really sure of exactly what is coming. But we know that most of the big titles are coming this holiday and early 2k3- so what does that leave us with? A new Kid Icarus? Online plans? Earthbound? Breath of Fire? More information on F-Zero and Star Fox? Pokemon? New Titles?

I'm not excited at what's coming, because I don't know what that is. I'm talking about the possibilities- that is what excites me.

b0b
09-25-2002, 09:06 PM
you can't kill Nintendo even if they decide the hardware business isn't working out they'll go software and then of course they'll still have the gameboy imagine how much sell through nintendo would get if it was mutliplatform, when I heard about MS trying to buy Nintendo I gained alot of respect for them as they we're trying to fill the Xbox with the big N's all powerful grip on the youth market, MS isn't in this for the short term people there trying to play major hardball, look how they we're trying to buy Sega which they would then use captial to buy a controlling interest in SquareSoft. MS is a huge company and there is no doubt there 4th Q 2002 - 4th Q 2003 will be huge I'm not going to list all the AAA titles that are in the pipes all the smart people already know about them I also believe that if Sony can get that many people to buy a broadband adapter and socom for exactly the same price as XBL & a game of your choice then XBL will make a major difference in Xbox sales, Socom proved people are dieing to play Broadband games on there consoles.

Kid0_oIcarus
09-26-2002, 08:49 AM
Wait, wait, wait. You gained a lot of respect for them when they tried to buy Nintendo? Come again? I mean, sure that shows they want to play, and they weren't stupid trying to go after one of the stars of the industry- but really. Do you think Nintendo would still be Nintendo if they were owned by anyone else? Hmm.. although then I wouldn't have to miss out on Toe Jam & Earl and Panzer Dragoon.... nah. Die infidel!! Aiiiiiiieeeeeeee!!!

Lousy stupid third console had to come out and screw up my tradition of always sticking with one console.

crazytaxinext
09-26-2002, 11:56 AM
Nintendo has said befre that its E3 2003 policy was to not show titles that it did not believe would be out by the following years E3. Thats why the release schedule only goes as far as May 2003, when E3 is. Its easy to say that they should show us next years Xmas line p to build up hype but everytime Nintendo has done this they've face endless criticism for making gamers wait so long and for them having to delay the title as there was no way they could have given an accurate release date 18 months before release. Think about it like this most games are in development for 2 years. If Nintendo showed them 6 months into this cycle how would they explain it when many are axed as with what happens during many a games lifespan.

Halo 2's announcement may seem good now but if Xmas finally comes around there's always the chance that it may either not live upto the hype, be delayed until mid 2004 or the public will simply get tired of the franchise purely from having shots and info rammed down their throats for the last year and a half. To announce early is a risky thing. MS is already learning this as Panzer, Brute Force and increasingly likely DOA:XVB all face or already have been delayed until sometime next year. If anything Nintendo is handling itself better these days.

DBJAY
09-26-2002, 01:02 PM
I don't know about that....E3 2001 showed teasers for Mario, StarFox, Metroid, etc. SMS just came out, Fox just came out, Zelda is next year, 1080:WS is next year, all over a year from first images released. Why can't they do a similar thing now and at least preview major titles over a year in advance like they did in 2001?

Black Ace
09-26-2002, 01:48 PM
Originally posted by DBJAY
I don't know about that....E3 2001 showed teasers for Mario, StarFox, Metroid, etc. SMS just came out, Fox just came out, Zelda is next year, 1080:WS is next year, all over a year from first images released. Why can't they do a similar thing now and at least preview major titles over a year in advance like they did in 2001?

Don't expect Nintendo to revealed anything until E3 2003. So quit complaining. A bonus for you, there will be one new franchise from Nintendo, what it is, you'd have to wait and see, like all of us.

DBJAY
09-26-2002, 02:48 PM
It's only a critique of their marketing strategy, nothing more, nothing less.